SIRAHA, Nov 14: Political analysts and general public are closely following elections in Madhes. One of the factors behind it is that the ‘democratic’ and the left alliances are fielding competent candidates that have the potential to give tough competition to even veteran candidates for Madhes based parties. Senior leaders of the Madhes based party, Rashtriya Janata Party (RJP) in the province number two are being closely watched in this regard. There is numerous calculations or assessment being made about the leaders like Mahanta Thakur, Sharat Singh Bhandari, Mahendra Raya Yadav, Upendra Yadav and Rajendra Mahato. Apart from the competent alliance contenders, they are facing challenges from their disappointed cadres. 

Top Madhesi leaders are on the election battlefield with tickets in their hand. The Alliance between RJP and Samajwadi Forum was expected to make their candidacy strong. However, there are leaders from these parties who lost ‘sure and certain election ticket’ because of the alliance. Some of these candidates did not give into party decision and rebelled.  

For instance, Jay Prakash Thakur has challenged Upendra Yadav, President of Samajwadi Forum, who is common candidate of Madhes alliance. Thakur does have good hold in the locality. He had received an impressive number of vote during the second CA elections when he contested from Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party (TMLP). Except for Thakur, former irrigation minister Umesh Yadav who is contesting election from Left alliance, has good reputation in the area and therefore a strong competition for Upendra Yadav. 

The present province number two consists of parts from earlier second and third province. This has also affected the election atmosphere for the leaders. 

Mahanta Thakur of RJP has registered his candidacy from Mahottari 3. But a leader from his own party, Chandeshowr Jha, is contesting the elections against him. Jha is also former independent lawmaker. He had been elected during the second CA election. Thakur had lured him into his party promising him election ticket. As Thakur did not keep his word, Jha stood against him in the election. 

Similarly, Sarat Singh Bhandari, who is also a common candidate of the alliance, does not face any threat from such rebel candidate. However, his victory is also uncertain because of Nepali Congress (NC) candidate Kiran Yadav. NC had received good support in Mahotari 2 during the local level election from where Bhandari is contesting now. Most of the municipalities here have NC leadership. Considering the greater presence of NC at the local level bodies, analysts say that Kiran Yadav could draw higher number of votes.  

Another leader of RJP Mahendra Raya Yadav is not free of threat either. He has to defeat Jangilal Yadav of NC. Jangilal who recently joined NC, was general secretary of RJP.  Considering his deeper political connections at the local level, analysts opine that he could give a tough competition to Mahendra Raya Yadav. 

Rajendra Mahato, on the other hand, is contesting against Bimalendra Nidhi from Dhanusha 3. While Mahato is candidate from Madhes alliance, Nidhi represents Nepali Congress. Mahato is being painted as ‘tourist candidate’ by social media users. Changing of constituency is going to cost dearly to Mahato, according to political analysts. Earlier, Mahato was thought to be fielding his candidacy from Sarlahi 4. However, after Amresh Singh of Nepali Congress turned as his competitor there, Mahato had switched to Dhanusha 3. And, locals say that defeating Nidhi is not easy for him either. 

Another leader of RJP, Raj Kishore Yadav does have serious competition too. The left alliance and Nepali Congress candidates are giving him a tough time. Ajaya Shankar Nayak of left alliance and Moktar Aahamat from NC, are his contestants. 

It is not only that senior and central leaders alone are facing rebel candidates. Even district-level leaders are struggling to compete with rebel candidates. Political analyst Rajanikanta Jha notes that parties have failed to manage disgruntled party leaders. “Failure to manage election disputes by political parties is apparent. This has left many party cadres gravely disappointed,” he said. “Just because they have come together in the election, the Madhes based parties are not going to draw expected number of votes. There should have been smarter in managing their cadres,” he added. 

Analysts claimed that some cadres of RJP and Samajwadi Forum defected to other parties when they felt that their party candidates might loose due to the formation of the alliance. To make the matter worse, the ‘democractic’ and the left alliance, lured these disgruntled cadres by offering them tickets. Rajanikanta Jha states that this has left Madhes alliance much weaker. “The Madhes alliance is facing competition from three sides. Rebel candidates, the ‘democractic alliance’ candidates and the left alliance candidates,” Rajanikanta Jha said. 

 
• triple
 
• trouble
 
• madhes
 
• alliance
 
• candidates