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Boxed in on China
Published On: March 26, 2021 08:00 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach
China is a challenge for the US but also an opportunity. The US-China relationship is far too important.
The Internet versus democracy
Published On: January 24, 2021 08:00 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach
In a decade punctuated by the global financial crisis, the COVID-19 crisis, a racial-justice crisis, an inequality crisis, and now a political crisis, we have only paid lip service to lofty democratic ideals.
The pandemic’s long economic shadow
Published On: December 25, 2020 07:34 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach
While mass vaccination points to an end to the COVID-19 pandemic in the next year or so, it does not provide immunity against longer-term economic damage.
China leads again
Published On: November 1, 2020 06:50 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach
Just as China led the world in economic recovery in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008, it is playing a similar role today. Its post-COVID rebound is gathering momentum amid a developed world that remains on shaky ground.
Warnings from global trade
Published On: January 31, 2019 12:30 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach
The global trade cycle is facing major stress in 2019, and markdowns have only just begun
In defense of Fed
Published On: January 3, 2019 12:30 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach
Notwithstanding rumored unconstitutional threats from the president, Fed should be congratulated for its steadfast commitment to policy “normalization”
America’s Inflation Risks
Published On: October 30, 2018 12:30 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach
Not surprisingly, this pattern has been slow to emerge in the current cycle, largely owing to an unusually weak post-crisis economic recovery
Quantitative easing turns ten
Published On: August 12, 2018 12:30 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach
Are independent central banks willing to force society to sacrifice growth for financial stability?
When politics trumps economics
Published On: July 2, 2018 12:30 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach
Trump’s deficit-busting tax cuts and increases in government spending make no sense for an economy with an unemployment rate of 3.8 percent
America’s multilateral dilemma
Published On: May 30, 2018 12:30 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach
It doesn’t help when we emphasize that China is merely a large piece of a much bigger multilateral problem
China from a glass house
Published On: March 28, 2018 12:30 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach
The current debate in China is less about strategy design and more about implementation. This was Xi’s highest priority on assuming office in late 2012
Myth of sound fundamentals
Published On: March 4, 2018 12:30 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach
With dysfunctional policies pointing to a further compression of saving in the years ahead, the myth of sound US fundamentals has never rung more hollow.
Losing trade war
Published On: February 1, 2018 01:30 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach
Going after China, or any other country, without addressing the root cause of low saving is like squeezing one end of a water balloon: the water simply sloshes to the other end
Testing 2018
Published On: December 17, 2017 12:30 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach
It is important to stress that the world economy may not be nearly as resilient as the consensus seems to believe.
Trump’s tax scam
Published On: November 28, 2017 12:30 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach
According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the tax cuts will result in a cumulative deficit of about $1.4 trillion over next decade.
Bungling on China
Published On: September 3, 2017 12:30 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach
America does not hold the trump card in its relation with China.
China’s economic resilience
Published On: July 31, 2017 12:30 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach
Were it not for China’s resilience in the depths of recent crisis, world GDP would not have contracted by 0.1 percent in 2009, but plunged by 1.3 percent.
Global China
Published On: May 31, 2017 12:30 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach
The Next China is shaping up to be outwardly focused, assertive and power-centric
A resilient China
Published On: April 3, 2017 07:23 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach
NEW HAVEN: Another growth scare has come and gone for the Chinese economy. This, of course, is very much at odds with Western conventional wisdom, which has long expected a hard landing in China. Once again, the Western perspective missed the Chinese context—a resilient system that places a high premium on stability.
China’s big sticks
Published On: January 30, 2017 12:15 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach
China is threatening to hit back. And now America will have to face the consequences
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