From Himalayas to Bay of Bengal What S Asia needs from COP-15?
AKANSHYA SHAH
It is an accepted fact that the planet’s climate is changing. In the past century, the global average temperature has risen by about 0.7 degrees Celsius. Scientists in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) say this is 90% man-made as a result of power generation, deforestation, transport, agriculture and industry. The IPCC suggests global emissions must decline rapidly if we are to avoid a dangerous increase in temperature. More significantly, scientists have claimed that even if the developed world agrees to cut the GHG to 1997 terms, it will take another 50 years to reach the neutral point.
For the poor and vulnerable majority of the South Asian nations, climate change is no more a debate – it is real and is here. With more melting glacier deposits, there is an increasing danger that the entire Marsyangdi river basin may be swiped off. As the Himalayas are melting at a faster pace, livelihoods of the people living in the highest altitudes are threatened. In Jomsom, Mustang district, locals say that they have not seen snow or rain for an entire year and that their horticulture land now lay barren. The bio-diversity too has been affected. Locals in this remote region have reported seeing jackals at about 3800 m height as the jungles have gone thinner with snow line moving up the mountains.
India, which should play a lead role on behalf of SAARC, is seen reluctant to push forward South Asia’s agenda for climate change adaptation and mitigation for political reasons.
People are looking at alternative crops farming due to recurrent drought and flooding. In the Indian state of Bihar, sweet potato, black wild seeds and millet are said to have become almost extinct. On a recent climate change training program organized by the Department for International Development (DFID), Dilip Kumar Gupta, an agriculture expert from Bihar told this scribe that Bihar is experiencing shorter monsoon but with greater rainfall intensity, which is almost ruining their sugarcane farms. “In Bihar by November the temperature used to be 15 degrees Celsius, but now it is much hotter. The temperature is not suitable for sugarcane harvesting and even wheat cultivation,” Gupta said. He informed that even eagles, vultures and domestic crows are hardly seen around the field. “These birds gave natural treatment to the soil before, but since their number is declining people are using more pesticides thereby decreasing soil fertility,” he added.
Due to high silt deposition, vast lands near the banks of Koshi River on the both side of the border now remain nude. Earlier, the silt brought by floods in these areas used to be highly fertile, but at present no farming is possible in the areas due to low quality silt. In the ground water scientists have identified high arsenic levels which cause cancer in humans. The result is food insecurity, rising outbreak of diseases and starvation. Bihar is currently facing one of the worst droughts since 1967. There have been more deaths due to starvation as the basic crops – paddy and wheat, is affected due to floods and temperature variation.
For the people in the coastal region in Sundarbans and Bay of Bengal, the cyclones, and tidal surges due to rising sea level have left millions homeless and uprooted hundreds of community altogether. Experts have concluded that rise in sea surface temperature (from 24 to 26 degree) in Bay of Bengal will increase the intensity of cyclones. Between 1975-89 the region experienced 1 cyclone, but between 1990-2004, there were 7 major cyclones. Bangladesh is faced with an increasing problem of population relocation with slums growing at the rate of 7 percent annually. Diseases such as malaria, dengue, kala azar are intensifying. With climatic variables and increase in salinity in drinking water, the poor, especially fishing community in the coastal area of Chittagong, seems to be worst affected. Majority of fishermen are now looking at alternative jobs with even the number of fishes declining.
With this in the background, countries like Nepal, India and Bangladesh are now faced with a deep political problem. Globally, emissions are rising steadily, making reductions (mitigation) all the more urgent. It is also clear that some climate change is unavoidable, so societies must act to reduce impacts (adaptation). Governments are thus trying to hammer out an agreement on how to tackle these challenges and for South Asia, therefore, the upcoming COP-15 summit — the 15th Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) — will be crucial in terms of negotiation with the developed countries. There are a number of key battlegrounds. First is the division between the 189 Parties to the Kyoto Protocol, which are negotiating the Protocol’s continuation, and the United States, which wants a different international framework. Second, the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) will have to push for a greater financial and technical means from the developed nations for meeting mitigation challenges. As Nepal is the current chair of the LDCs, it is in the right position to push for bargaining a fair deal from the developed countries.
The political statement that will emerge from COP-15 (experts have already predicted that no significant legally binding framework will emerge from Copenhagen) must answer four key questions —how much will developed countries commit to reducing their emissions? What are major developing countries willing to do to limit theirs? Where will the money and technological support come from to help developing nations reduce emissions and adapt to climate change? And how will that money be managed?
However, it is unfortunate that South Asia does not have a common voice on this global debate so far. Developing nations such as China and India now have very large and growing emissions, and developed nations want them to share the burden of mitigation. And they are unwilling to compromise with their development agenda. It is also clear that India, which should be playing a lead role on behalf of SAARC, is seen reluctant to push forward South Asia’s agenda for climate change adaptation and mitigation.
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From Himalayas To Bay Of Bengal What S Asia Needs From COP-15?
Thank you Akanshya for writing on some of the issues and problems of South Asia associated with the accelerated rates of climate change due mainly to unsustainable and haphazard anthropogenic activitis carried on the planet earth. If no concrete measures are adopted, the island countries such a Maldives -one of the Sout Asian nations, woud be affected first and the most, as reported. Nepal can ot be an exception in this. LDCs such as Madives, Nepal and Bangladesh do not have adequate resource
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